The "New Hizballah" built by Syria sparks ME summer war fear

The "New Hizballah" built by Syria sparks ME summer war fear
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 18, 2010, 5:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Hizballah   New missiles   Syria 

Syrian M-600 missile converted from Fateh-110

DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that Syria has expanded the flow of smuggled Syrian and Iranian weaponry across the Lebanese border to Hizballah in line with a master-plan charted in Tehran and Damascus for transforming the 25,000-strong Hizballah terrorist militia into an organized, mobile army with a whole range of sophisticated missiles and other weapons. The new Hizballah is being trained to carry out such offensive operations as capturing parts of Israel's Galilee and equipped with the hardware for knocking out warplanes, warships and armored strength.
One of their missions will be to defend the Syrian capital, Damascus. Tehran andDamascus calculate that the next time a war erupts on Israel's borders, its army will try and outflank Syrian forces on the Golan and drive past the units defending Damascus. That is where Hizballah is expected to come in.
Even after the Kuwaiti Al Rai claim that Syria had smuggled Scud ground missiles intoLebanon proved inaccurate and was denied in Washington, regional war tensions remained high - although not for the reason ascribed by Jordan's King Abdullah during his current visit to Washington.
The king forecast an outbreak of Middle East hostilities in the coming summer because of the Israel-Palestinian diplomatic stalemate. What's the connection? Our sources ask. Rather than admit he is nervously watching his aggressive Arab neighbor to the north, the Jordanian ruler is pinning the region's troubles on Israelbecause it is the right tune to sing in Barack Obama's Washington.
In actual fact, a Middle East war this summer depends on two actions which have nothing to do with the Palestinians: a decision by the US and/or Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities together or separately, and a decision in Tehran to unleash its allies against Israel - spearheaded by Hizballah - to preempt such an attack.
Ready to step into its new shoes, Hizballah is being armed with five major military capabilities, DEBKAfile reports:
1. Surface-to-surface missiles able to reach as far as the Dimona reactor in southern Israel: They include Fajr-5, which has a range of 33 km, and the M-600, developed by Syria from the Fateh-110, whose range is 250 km. Both are precise, propelled by solid fuel and carry 500-kilo warheads of conventional explosives, as well as being able to deliver chemical, biological and radioactive materials.

This dangerous new arsenal which tops up the 40,000 rockets Hizballah was allowed to pile up since the 2006 Lebanon war.
Saturday, April 17, Israel's deputy defense minister Mattan Vilnai, warned that Syriaand Hizballah between them had ballistic missiles that could reach every millimeter of Israeli territory.
But he did not explain how the national defense leadership, of which he is a senior member, allowed this to happen.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has said nothing to account for his 14-month old government's failure to make good on its pledges for change, and first of all to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.  Instead, he follows his predecessors' same old passive routines on Iran, Syria and Hizballah, an open invitation to aggression and a recipe for armed conflict. Of late, he is hardly to be seen or heard except for the irrelevant comments he makes at state ceremonies.
2.  Iran has built for Hizballah five expanded commando brigades whose mission in a future conflict will be to capture and hold key northern Israeli towns and villages, including the town of Nahariya or parts thereof. This tactic would force Israeli forces marching into Lebanon to turn back and recover lost land.

On March 28, DEBKAfile revealed this Iranian-Syrian master plan in detail.
3.  Syrian instructors are training Hizballah militiamen at top speed in the operation of ground-to-air weapons, including self-propelled missiles, against warplanes and incoming missiles and cruise missiles. Israel has threatened to destroy these batteries if they cross the border into Lebanon. They are therefore being held back in Syrian bases up against the border until such time as fighting flares. They will then be transferred into the hands of Hizballah units standing by on the Lebanese side of the border.
4.  Syria has set up a Hizballah special unit for attacking warships and fighting off Israeli coastal landings. It is equipped with advanced Chinese SS-26 Yakhont marine cruise missiles, which combine assault features with the ability to intercept attacking missiles or cruise missiles.
5.  Iranian and Syrian military engineers have constructed fortified anti-tank lines in many parts of Lebanon. They are linked by fast highways, to be closed to all traffic barring Hizballah units in an emergency, and by a military-grade communications network.

Threat of Israeli war is real


Friday, April 16, 2010

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Editorial

The latest tension across the Lebanese-Israeli border, and by extension the Lebanese-Syrian border, has been generated by a flurry of press reports and statements about the supposed arming of Hizbullah with upgraded weapons, in the form of Scud missiles coming from Damascus.

The focus of this campaign is obviously two countries – Lebanon and Syria – but a more useful place to look for the source of the tension is down south, in Israel.

Israeli forces have been provoking Lebanon of late, whether their forces have been crossing a “technical fence” into no-man’s land, or the actual UN-drawn Blue Line of withdrawal.

The world’s latest “missile crisis” is being generated by the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is being squeezed, along with the entire political-military establishment of the Jewish state.

The Israelis are being confronted by what they view as extremely serious challenges. First, there is the ongoing demographic threat to their hold over Palestinian territory. Second, there is a serious state-building threat, in the form of Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. Third, the Netanyahu government has cavalierly ignored Washington’s approach to the Middle East by inflaming the settlements issue. Finally, the Israelis are shook up about the situation in Iran, which continues to hold off an international community that can’t agree on what kind of sanctions against Tehran, if any, will be effective against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

It’s a convenient time for Netanyahu and the Israelis to embark on the reckless strategy of turning things upside down, with the threat of military action against whoever is convenient. Amid recent reports about steps by Hamas to control the smuggling tunnels on the border with Egypt, it’s not a big surprise to see the Israelis take aim at Lebanon. It’s a case of ratcheting up military tension and “seeing where things go,” since the alternative, making compromises on the peace front, appears to be unpalatable for Tel Aviv.

It’s a serious threat, since the West, while anxious to see peace break out, is also anxious about Islamists, whether moderate or extremist. There are those who say the “problem,” in the form of failed states, resistance movements, and Al-Qaeda partisans, will be with us for decades, so why not act on it now?

People in the region might be happy to have right on their side, but we can’t expect help from any quarter. An Israeli consensus apparently exists at the highest levels to “do something” about Hizbullah.

For politicians in Lebanon and elsewhere, the threat is real: wars can break out by mistake or by design, and if we remember the example of Iraq, a war over trumped-up accusations of weapons of mass destruction can generate a climate in which anything can happen.